The BREXIT vote has
created an unprecedented and monumental challenge for the UK, Europe and indeed
the world.
How this is handled
will determine the future. The Prime Minister will resign and so the UK has no
functioning Government and Opposition at present. The rating agencies are
downgrading UK credit rating to AA. More than 50 shadow cabinet members
have resigned from the Labour side. Corbyn in really major trouble. If he clings
on due to support from the grassroots and the trade unions then the political
party may have no option but to break away with a new party. It is
unprecedented in recent history for both the government and the opposition to
be in such turmoil.
"from someone in the UK who supports the REMAIN
position"
published by Earl of Cruise
In the UK
"certainty" seems to have vanished overnight and everything appears
uncertain. As Laurel & Hardy once said "this is another fine mess
you have got us into!" Thankfully one pillar of stability remains
which is the British Monarchy and our British culture and ingenuity.
This BREXIT is
arguably the greatest challenge in Europe and shift politically, socially and
constitutionally since the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communism.
Some say for Britain it could be the greatest challenge since the Second World
War. It is certainly unprecedented.
John Kerry is here in
the UK on a "reassurance visit" i.e. code for "emergency
protection visit". So clearly the USA are very worried. China, South Korea
and Japan are getting very worried as well. China has even stated that this is
the end of globalisation.
The European Union is
not perhaps helping things with the Commission continuing to think in a
federalist way and there is no need to reform. Crisis what crisis? Junker seems
to be ignoring the people of Europe and assuming they agree with the federal
idea. But they have never been asked that question. Reform to the EU is
essential if the peoples of Europe are to remain supportive and feel included.
Ignoring them will not them the situation. However national politicians
shouldn't use the EU as the scapegoat for the negative.
The UK and EU can find
a way forward. But this needs calm and cool heads to find a way through to the
benefit of everyone.
Gibraltar, Scotland
and Northern Ireland are looking to find a way to redesignate the UK as them
and get England and Wales to leave the UK. Therefore the new UK wouldn't need
to change anything and would remain in the EU. So all options being
explored.
Business don't like
uncertainty and so the soon uncertainty ends the better. But we need leadership
for that and the world lacks leadership.
It can be argued that
the UK is now in an unprecedented political, constitutional, economic and
social crisis. In addition it is very divided by nation, region, educational
background, cultural background, wealth, and demographic. The issues have been
building for decades. Trust in politics is at an all time low and negative
campaigning will only worsen this. What people need is leadership, a vision and
hope. If mainstream politicians in the UK, Europe and globally ignore rising
uncertainties and issues of their peoples then the people will be forced to
find hope elsewhere and move towards the extremes of politics as a consequence.
Politics must be more positive, respectful and inclusive.
Friends of mine in the
USA are saying that support is building rapidly for Donald Trump. USA seems to
have the same issue as the UK and similar levels of emerging division. The
major cities on the coasts are more pro Clinton but the heartland and south is Trump.
I now have very major fears indeed that similar sentiment is rising in the USA
and Trump therefore may in fact win in November or has a risk of doing
so.
Everyone I know cannot
stop thinking about Europe and how terribly bad a decision the British public
seem to have made. Leave voters I talk to just cannot understand what the
concern and fuss is all about. They say this is brilliant we have control of
our country again. Sadly they seem to have believed the creative language some
politicians often use to pull at the heartstrings of the public and to make
their message appear attractive. But we have to be very wary indeed of
extremism, protectionism and nationalism hiding behind a front of creative
language. Some even think we have already left the EU. The civil service in the
UK is being bombarded with messages saying we have left the EU why haven't you
updated things. But that is the problem negative campaigning and misinformation
has raised expectations. The misinformed public (particularly those who voted
LEAVE) have high expectations. They feel we have already left the EU so can do
what we want. The £350 million now can be spent on the NHS, farming, fisheries,
infrastructure, universities / research / science, etc. They also feel that
immigration was the main issue of the referendum and now the door can be closed
to migrants. As a result some feel there is rising intolerance against migrants
and foreigners in parts of the UK. EU nationals and other foreign nationals are
reporting that they are being told to go home. Even those who are UK born but
appear to look foreign in appearance are receiving elements of this backlash.
This vote has unleashed lots of issues that if not carefully handled could
become very dangerous indeed if a way forward is not found quickly.
My main criticism is
that in the wake of the Great Recession in 2007/8 the world was still
recovering from this it wasn't probably a good time to hold a referendum on
such an issue as the people would just use it do express discontent with the
government or economy or their fears and prejudices. After such economic shocks
the people tend to feel economic and social uncertainty and therefore risk
becoming polarised towards the extremes of politics in an effort to find
solutions and so country's risk nationalistic and protectionist tendencies
emerging. This happened in the 1930s after the Great Depression and similar
undercurrents are emerging today. BREXIT is just the latest expression of this.
If this continues then we have to watch the US Presidential Elections in
November and the French and German elections in 2017.
In terms of scenarios
my big three concerns are: PUTIN, BREXIT and TRUMP. Two have already
happened. If TRUMP wins in the USA this November or Front Nationale win in
France then this undercurrent will have boiled to the surface. Then the world
would be in big trouble. These are very challenging times globally and these
situations and rising disquiet from the people have to be heeded and handled
carefully.
Lesson one - never
ever ever hold a referendum. Lesson two - no negative campaigning, scapegoating
and misinformation. Politics must become more respectful, tolerant, inclusive
and positive. Lesson three - for too long politics has ignored the building
disquiet from the people and there has been a lack of leadership globally.
Today's leaders lack the vision and capability of great leaders such as
Churchill.
The UK is already a
great country and has the ingenuity to come back from this over time and
continue towards a prosperous future.
But to do this it
needs stability, leadership, tact and vision. We need a new leader for these
challenging times who is a modern Churchill.
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