Till
2026 there is number of new cruise ships and developments to expect.
by Earl of Cruise
by Earl of Cruise
Rendering of the existing and two
ordered Disney Cruise vessels - courtesy DISNEY CRUISE LINES
Some
are only upgrades of a previous design, some are evolutions of their predecessors,
but some seem to become revolutionary.
Since the Seatrade Cruise Global 2016 conference in Miami a recurring discussion
among company executives and industry insiders is twofold. One, there is an
increasingly strong demand for cruise travel internationally, prompting new
ships to be built, and two, there are not enough experienced shipyards and
suppliers constructing them quick enough.
The construction of cruise ships is high tech and no longer existing in
some former ship building nations, such as Sweden, Denmark, USA and others, even
in the United Kingdom. These nations have a strong military marine industry,
but that you can´t transfer to civil shipbuilding.
This above mentioned discussion again was at the German `fvw Cruise Live´
conference (fvw, a magazine for travel insiders, from counter to decission
makers), in Köln (Cologne). Last year (2015) we have seen 23,2 million high
seas cruise passengers worldwide. Over 13 million allone in the North American market. CLIA is expecting for 2016 24,2 million cruise
passengers. 1,81 million German cruisers took a sea vacation in 2015 and
generated 2,87 milliard (Billion) € (Euro) travel sales. The German guests
spend 15,75 millionen nights on board. The German average cruise day price rose
to 181,86 € (volume/mass market, premium,
luxury, 5star). As a German cruise manager argued:
"The average cruise price is still not high enough."
Asia has seen a 24% increase to 2+ million cruise guests. Australia, Newzeeland
and the Pacific region hass seen a growth of 14% in 2015. In Australia 1,1
million cruise guests have been generated. Worldwide the cruise industry is
"only" covering 2% of the international travel and holiday, but grew
by 20% faster than the travel industry itself. Even if the growth for 2015 was
only 2% in total.
The cruise industry has generated 40,95 milliard (Billion) € (Euro) and
360,571 jobs are existing, or have been created by the cruise industry. Source:
TravelTalk (fvw) 40/2016 and CLIA
Considering statistics of Cruise Industry News, the worldwide
cruise fleet will reach a passenger capacity of more than 33.5 million by 2026,
and the picture of new-builds on the horizon begins to come into focus.
The main players building cruise ships currently are Fincantieri in Italy
with several yards in Italy and Norway, Lloyd Werft and MV Werft (both Genting
Group) in Germany, Meyer Group in Germany and Finland, Kleven and Bergen Group
in Norway, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan and STX France in
Saint-Nazaire.
The Lloyd Werft will not build the three new 1,000 passenger 5star vessels
for CRYSTAL. They will be built at the MV Werft, also a Genting subsidiary.
This opens Lloyd for other building options.
The delivery problems of Mitsubishi with the AIDA newbuilds may throw them
out of the race for some years. And a number of cruise industry insiders still remember
the disasters around the DIAMAND and SAPPHIRE PRINCESS.
2016 has seen or
will see 10 new cruise ships worldwide. They enlarge the capacity by 27,600 new
beds, of which 5.750 beds will be exclusive for the German market. Looking at
the list below, compiled from different sources, it’s remarkable to note that
these ships only account for mostly firm orders and not options cruise lines
have to build additional sister ships through 2026, and the schedule is already
tightly stacked.
It doesn’t even include river vessels, which are experiencing a similar
boom in expansion, nor PONANT’s four planned ships, The HAPAG-LLOYD two expedition cruisers, SCENIC´s Scenic Eclipse mega-yacht and option for a second,
and not STAR CLIPPERS´ new FLYING CLIPPER. All being built at other yards, as
well the the ordered newbuilds and options for HURTIGRUTEN.
As to the potential for additional yards to pick up some of the slack in
the future, Asia may hold the solution. For instance, Carnival Corporation has
announced that it will launch a new brand for China with potential new-builds that would beconstructed under partnership with China State Shipbuilding
Corporation and Fincantieri. Fincantieri then is delivering know-how to a
future fierce competitor. But there is still a lack of reasonable suppliers.
For the United Kingdom there is quite a different situation, but not to
solve within the next few years. There is a potential to step back into the passenger/cruise
shipbuilding. This may be forced by the recent Brexit voting.
The question of whether cruise ships could also be built in America also
comes up from time to time. While smaller ships like those for American Cruise
Lines are built domestically by Chesapeake Shipbuilding, Corp., large passenger
vessels have not been built for awhile in the Unites States. Norwegian Cruise
Line’s PRIDE OF AMERICA actually started life for now defunct US cruise operator,
with its hull constructed in the USA, but it was completed at Lloyd Werft in
Germany. And refering to the last US passenger ships built ... that was more
than half a century ago ...
The challenge is mainly finding facilities that have years of expertise and
suppliers readily capable of providing everything from cabins to water slides. Constructing
a aval force vessel, is one thing, or a container vessel ... but a cruise ship
is total different world. Bottom line costs are also a predominant
consideration, and inevitably it’s cheaper to build new cruise ships not in the
USA.
Another major point is the enviromental issue. Actually we have the TIER
III regulation active around the North American continent, including the US
Gulf Coast, but not the Caribbean Sea, in the Chanel, the North Sea and the
Baltic Sea. The Mediterranean will be included shortly. The polar regions have the
same, besides the regulation of passenger capacity in Antarctica - max 300
persons allowed to land per day. Further TIER IV is just behind the door,
waiting to be activated, with further and stronger regulations for air
pollution.
This forces the cruises lines to rethink their fuel policy. Heavy marine
oil, a highly poisonous wate product from producing diesel and gas, requires
now vast scrubbers which use much needed space in cruise vessels. Even low
sulphor marine diesel still requires scrubbers.
LNG will be the alternative to the "normal" fuel, as it is
burning nearly clean. But used in dual-fuel marine diesel engines not that
efficient. The highest effinciency actually are in LNG fueld gas turbines
combined with electric generators. The propellers can run in the most efficient
way, and more so if pitch propellers will be used. The tank capacity has has to
be quadrupeld, but the engine room space is minimalized compared to the diesel
engine rooms.
Crystal
Cruises Exclusive-class - courtesy CRYSTAL CRUISES
Princess Cruises Royal-class -
courtesy Fincantieri Group
MSC Cruises Meraviglia Plus-class -
courtesy STX France
The first mega cruise ships fueled by LNG, also those
with the highest passenger density, the 180,000 GT plattform for P&O Cruises, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises and Carnival Cruise Lines -
courtesy Meyer Werft Group
Norwegian
Cruise Line, Breakaway Plus-class - courtesy NCL
Fincantieri
Carnival Cruise Line - Carnival Vista - May 2016 (delivered)
Regent Seven Seas Cruises - Seven Seas Explorer - July 2016 (delivered)
Seabourn Cruise Line - Seabourn Encore - December 2016
Viking Ocean Cruises - Viking Sky - March 2017
Silversea Cruises - Silver Muse - Spring 2017
MSC Cruises - MSC Seaside - November 2017
Princess Cruises - Majestic Princess - 2017
Viking Ocean Cruises - Venice-class 4 - 2017
Carnival Cruise Line - Carnival Vista 2 - March 2018
MSC Cruises - Seaside-class 2 - May 2018
Seabourn Cruise Line - Seabourn Ovation - Spring 2018
Holland America Line - Pinnacle-class 2 - November 2018
Viking Ocean Cruises - Venice-class 5 - 2018
Princess Cruises - Royal-class 4 - 2019
P&O Cruises Australia - 1 - 2019
Costa Asia - 1 - 2019
Princess Cruises - Royal-class 5 - 2020
Viking Ocean Cruises - Venice-class 6 - 2020
Regent Seven Seas Cruises - Explorer-class 2 - 2020
Costa Asia - 2 - 2020
Virgin Cruises - 1 - 2020
Virgin Cruises - 2 - 2021
Virgin Cruises - 3 - 2022
Crystal Yacht Cruises - Crystal Endeavor - August 2018
Crystal Cruises - Exclusive-class 1 - Fall 2019
Crystal Cruises - Exclusive-class 2 - 2020
Crystal Cruises - Exclusive-class 3 - 2021
Meyer Group
Dream Cruises - Genting Dream - Fall 2016 (delivered)
Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Joy - Spring 2017
Dream Cruises - World Dream - Fall 2017
Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Bliss - 2018
Royal Caribbean International - Quantum-class 4 - Spring 2019
P&O Cruises - 1 - Summer 2018
Saga Cruises - 1 - Summer 2019
AIDA Cruises - 1 - 2019
Carnaival Cruise Lines - 1 - Autumn 2019
Norwegian Cruise Line - Breakaway Plus-class 4 - 2019
Costa Cruises - 1 - Spring 2020
AIDA Cruises - 2 - 2020
Royal Caribbean International - Quantum-class 5 - Fall 2020
Costa Cruises - 2 - Spring 2021
Disney Cruise Line - 1 - 2021
Disney Cruise Line - 2 - 2023
Mitsubishi
AIDA Cruises - 2 - 2017
STX France
Royal Caribbean International - Harmony of the Seas - May 2016 (delivered)
MSC Cruises - MSC Meraviglia - 2017
Celebrity Cruises - 1 - Fall 2018
Royal Caribbean International - Oasis-class 4 - 2018
MSC Cruises - Meraviglia-class 2 - 2019
MSC Cruises - Meraviglia Plus-class 1 - 2019
Celebrity Cruises - 2 - 2020
MSC Cruises - Meraviglia Plus-class 2 - 2020
MSC Cruises - World-class 1 - 2022
MSC Cruises - World-class 2 - 2024
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