America's new President-Elect, Mr. Trump, who won after a divisive, confrontational and negative Presidential Election.
"from someone in the UK who supported
the UK REMAIN position"
published and additions by Earl of Cruise
Donald Trump during his campaign - courtesy of geo.tv
This result is entirely unprecedented in American history. This is a
sad day and is not the America that that
many know, admire and love.
But we have to see and keep an open mind with Trump and hope he learns
quickly and assembles a good team to guide him. We must not rush to judgement
but give him time and challenge him if necessary to maintain global values and
institutions.
However we in Britain also experienced some deja vu, the scenario that
has played out in America is almost identical to BREXIT with many underlying
factors being similar. The people have voted and now the consequences
must be faced. America is a very divided society it seems and this election was
a massive and unprecedented vote against the status quo, the establishment and
globalisation.
Healing these divisions will be crucial. Regenerating the former industrial
areas of the Rust Belt also needs to be urgently considered to address these
divisions and bring economic growth to these areas. Economic growth needs to be
inclusive and distributed across the country and not focussed on few
people, cities or areas. It seems that only the West Coast and the
North East of America voted Democrat and wanted the status quo. America was
founded on an idea of an open, cosmopolitan and liberal democracy that offers
and special place for everyone regardless of their background but this election
appears to be a total rejection of that.
Since the Financial Crisis 2006/07 and the following* Great Recession in 2008 it seems that more people are feeling neglected and
left out by their Governments and economic growth over the last 30 years has
been confined to a few areas of countries and has accompanied widespread
deindustrialisation of key areas and so impact has not been dispersed to
everyone's benefit (Occupy movement*). This lack of inclusive economic growth is a major factor in this rising
anti-establishment, anti-government and anti-globalisation trend. We are now in
an era of post truth politics where the past global norms are turned on their
head. Increasingly political developments seem more surreal and
unpredictable. It seems that the world has gone mad in 2016 and
increasingly protectionist, isolationist and divisive. People seem to be
anti-establishment, anti-globalisation and we seem to be in a post-truth
politics where evidence is discounted. With such distrust of politics, the only
place people could turn is entertainment and Trump's celebrity standing was
huge with THE APPRENTICE TV show. Reality TV is now reality. Trump as President is a massive
gamble and this will have massive implications for America and the world.
Basically this is upending the entire system and throwing it out of the
window. There is likely to be a complete realignment of global norms in the
largest shift since the Second World War. Obama's legacy may also be completely
wiped out by the Republicans and Trump particularly the controversial
Obama-care.
The
financial crisis started with an overheated US Real Estate market based on its
"sub-prime credits" - following the "American Dream":
Each one its own house.
The banks
created "bank products" which contained, very hidden, the risks for
failiure of these loans and sold these highly toxic papers all around the
world. The promised rent from these "papers" was high, and greed
took the better.
One of the
most engaged banks within these "deals", and prime creator of, the
LEHMAN BROS., went into bancrupcy. Why the Republican President and
administration never realised, that this bank was relevant for the world
economic sytem, does concern me ... is there economic understanding?
The 2006
beginning, and since 2008 still running Depression, is caused by unleashed
banks. Reagon and Thatcher back then thought the market will do it. But banks
without any controll act for themselves and not for the public wealth. There
was turn to economic growth after the unleashing, but it left the lower
incomes and middle class in a downward spiral.
Earl of Cruise
* adding by Earl of Cruise
|
Those of us looking in on America from outside see significant concerns and
risks such as questioning of NATO, scrapping of free trade and global trade
deals, retrograde steps perhaps towards tackling climate change if Trump pulls
out of Paris Agreement, wall with Mexico, questioning of the deal with Iran
which may lead it to a reversion towards nuclear weapons, etc. Indeed many in
Europe are concerned that Trump will pull America out of NATO and instead
realign global relations of America towards Russia and China thereby leaving
Europe to fend for itself. But Russia is increasingly aggressive and recent
experience with Crimea and Syria do not bode well many feel and there is
concern about their intentions towards Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
Putin and the Kremlin are clearly absolutely delighted with this result as it
gives them free rein in the Middle East, Crimea, Eastern Europe and Baltic
States. If Trump questions NATO then this puts the security of Europe at
serious risk and it risks being the Second World War but the other way around.
EU leaders are absolutely completely terrified of this election result as it
comes on top of BREXIT which scared them enough already.
After the
Great Depression in the 1930s a similar trend happened as people became
disaffected due to the economic problems as a result they became more
protectionist. While direct comparison is not possible as there are differences
in context and times. But in the 1930s this resulted in the election of Hitler
in Germany and we know how well that went.
I am not
saying that election of Trump is an equivalent as this is clearly not the
case. But nevertheless we have to learn the lessons of history and we more
aware of rising discontent that appears to follow periods of great economic
uncertainty such as the Great Depression and the Great Recession. If not
handled carefully such turbulent and unpredictable times lead to possibly
dangerous forces being unleashed including protectionism, nationalism and fear
of the unknown or foreigner. I am seriously concerned that after the Great
Recession in 2008 we now may be in a new period of turbulent protectionism
and unpredictable change and who knows where it may lead.
While
Germany had a troubled start into his first real democarcy, French occupation
of the Rheinland, the Ruhrgebiet, the raging Inflation from 1921 till ´23/24
it became economic stable. But with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 the Great
Depression hit Germany at first.
All loans
from the USA had been withdrawn immediately. Those guaranteed the economic
growth in Germany and necessary for the Reparation payments to the WWI
Allies.
The
Republican President in the USA had no clue what he was ordering.
What was
following, was the failiure of "finance caroussel". The Allies in
Europe had depts to pay in the USA and could not any longer.
The United
Kingdom left the gold standard, but did fall into a depression lasting into
the early 1950s. Italy´s finance system broke, as those of all southern
European countries. Eastern Europe went into an atmosphere of hostility. And
the new "Versailles formed" countries Poland and Hungary had been in
a state of dictatorship. Same with
Romania and Bulgaria, and a similar situation for Austria with its right
winged "democracy". Even Switzerland was right winged in those
days. And democratic countries became a minority - France, United Kingdom,
the Scandinavian countries and Germany !till 1930/33 - since 1930 Germany was
ruled without the parliaments vote, relying on Reichspräsident von
Hindenburg.
Today we
see in Poland the PIS and in Hungary the FIDES - far right winged
nationalistic parties. And in Austria the FPÖ is pushing the democratic
sytem.
Earl of Cruise
|
We often take
today's nation states and governance frameworks for granted thinking that they
are permanent. But this complacency is risky, they are only as permanent
as long as they retain the confidence and trust of the people. At the moment
this is being sorely tested and this trust and confidence of people in
governments and politics is being challenged. So when this happens the
unpredictable can happen with unknown consequences. The lesson for governments,
politicians and the wider "establishment" is that you need to
maintain the confidence and trust of the people and ensure inclusive economic
growth to the benefit of all. Democracy and our long held global values
are fragile and must be maintained otherwise they could be challenged and
overturned.
In history
is only one factor stable - CHANGE.
Nothing is
granted or fixed for eternity. Therefore, we all have to fight for democratic
rights, for acceptance and plurality. In the very moment, when we start to
rise walls and do the Hedgehog
trick, to prevent others to disturb us, or influence us, we have lost -then we
have lost our self-confidence, the believing in our strength and in
democracy.
Earl of Cruise
|
This leaves Britain in a very difficult situation - on the way out of the
EU and our closest ally America under Trump apparently
questioning NATO and the special relationship with UK. The worst
possible scenario we can imagine but sadly it is now reality. Now only Canada
and its young Prime Minister are left to stand up for global values, open and
liberal thinking.
But we shall have to see how things play out. However in the short term
volatility of the financial markets is likely, some Americans may consider
emigrating to Canada and elsewhere and tourists from Europe and elsewhere may
be less keen on visiting America.
Our three great fears: BREXIT plus Trump and the existing situation of
Putin's Russia have come true and now present the worse case scenario.
Indeed it may in fact now be a strong possibility that this protectionist and
anti establishment trend will take greater hold in Europe with a strong
possibility that Le Pen could win the French Presidential Election in 2017.
Italy is also taking a risk in December 2016 with a referendum on changes to
their constitution. Dutch, Austrian and German elections in 2017 also
present a risk of a more protectionist move perhaps leading in Germany to
the removal of Angela Merkel as leader. This could seriously destabilise the EU
if it were to happen as Germany is the EU's main economic power and provides
leadership, stability and considerable soft power. If Angela Merkel were to not
be leader it is unclear who would provide this leadership and stability in the
European Union.
Indeed it is
rumoured that Trump may appoint Nigel Farage as US Ambassador to the European
Union! Sarah Palin may also be on the way back! You could argue that this
is the largest corporate takeover in history as Trump Corporation takes over
America!
So the world watches developments with interest and trepidation. On the
plus side it may make George W. Bush look like a good President with his great
success with the Iraq War! The silver lining with George W. Bush is that he
loved his daughters and dogs. Likewise Trump is a great businessman and a
billionaire and loves his family.
All we can do
with Trump is hope that the rhetoric of his campaign may be tempered by reality
and his advisors. But his political inexperience and lack of foreign policy gives
grave concerns to those looking in on America. Who knows what will happen next.
This
"he will be tempered" thought was the very same, when Germany got
this Austrian wallpainter for his first period as Reichskanzler in January
1933 ...
Earl of Cruise
|
We must learn the lessons of history while realising that government,
democracy, values, peace and the nation state only remains as the status
quo if it continually has the confidence and trust of its people. These
are undoubtedly turbulent and unpredictable times.
We must stand up for our values, peace, freedom and democracy. They
are fragile and must not be taken for granted.
Perhaps Canada can step up and become a global leader and beacon for hope
and openness. Let's hope so.
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