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Trump, the President-Elect of the USA after 2016s Presidential Election

America's new President-Elect, Mr. Trump, who won after a divisive, confrontational and negative Presidential Election.
"from someone in the UK who supported the UK REMAIN position"
published and additions by Earl of Cruise
Donald Trump during his campaign
Donald Trump during his campaign - courtesy of geo.tv
This result is entirely unprecedented in American history. This is a sad day and is not the America that that many know, admire and love.
Reactions on Trump
Reactions about President-Elect, Trump - courtesy of dailystar.co.uk
But we have to see and keep an open mind with Trump and hope he learns quickly and assembles a good team to guide him. We must not rush to judgement but give him time and challenge him if necessary to maintain global values and institutions.
However we in Britain also experienced some deja vu, the scenario that has played out in America is almost identical to BREXIT with many underlying factors being similar.  The people have voted and now the consequences must be faced. America is a very divided society it seems and this election was a massive and unprecedented vote against the status quo, the establishment and globalisation. 
Healing these divisions will be crucial. Regenerating the former industrial areas of the Rust Belt also needs to be urgently considered to address these divisions and bring economic growth to these areas. Economic growth needs to be inclusive and distributed across the country and not focussed on few people, cities or areas. It seems that only the West Coast and the North East of America voted Democrat and wanted the status quo. America was founded on an idea of an open, cosmopolitan and liberal democracy that offers and special place for everyone regardless of their background but this election appears to be a total rejection of that.
Since the Financial Crisis 2006/07 and the following* Great Recession in 2008 it seems that more people are feeling neglected and left out by their Governments and economic growth over the last 30 years has been confined to a few areas of countries and has accompanied widespread deindustrialisation of key areas and so impact has not been dispersed to everyone's benefit (Occupy movement*). This lack of inclusive economic growth is a major factor in this rising anti-establishment, anti-government and anti-globalisation trend. We are now in an era of post truth politics where the past global norms are turned on their head. Increasingly political developments seem more surreal and unpredictable. It seems that the world has gone mad in 2016 and increasingly protectionist, isolationist and divisive. People seem to be anti-establishment, anti-globalisation and we seem to be in a post-truth politics where evidence is discounted. With such distrust of politics, the only place people could turn is entertainment and Trump's celebrity standing was huge with THE APPRENTICE TV show. Reality TV is now reality. Trump as President is a massive gamble and this will have massive implications for America and the world. Basically this is upending the entire system and throwing it out of the window. There is likely to be a complete realignment of global norms in the largest shift since the Second World War. Obama's legacy may also be completely wiped out by the Republicans and Trump particularly the controversial Obama-care.

The financial crisis started with an overheated US Real Estate market based on its "sub-prime credits" - following the "American Dream": Each one its own house.
The banks created "bank products" which contained, very hidden, the risks for failiure of these loans and sold these highly toxic papers all around the world. The promised rent from these "papers" was high, and greed took the better.
One of the most engaged banks within these "deals", and prime creator of, the LEHMAN BROS., went into bancrupcy. Why the Republican President and administration never realised, that this bank was relevant for the world economic sytem, does concern me ... is there economic understanding?
The 2006 beginning, and since 2008 still running Depression, is caused by unleashed banks. Reagon and Thatcher back then thought the market will do it. But banks without any controll act for themselves and not for the public wealth. There was turn to economic growth after the unleashing, but it left the lower incomes and middle class in a downward spiral.
Earl of Cruise
* adding by Earl of Cruise
Those of us looking in on America from outside see significant concerns and risks such as questioning of NATO, scrapping of free trade and global trade deals, retrograde steps perhaps towards tackling climate change if Trump pulls out of Paris Agreement, wall with Mexico, questioning of the deal with Iran which may lead it to a reversion towards nuclear weapons, etc. Indeed many in Europe are concerned that Trump will pull America out of NATO and instead realign global relations of America towards Russia and China thereby leaving Europe to fend for itself. But Russia is increasingly aggressive and recent experience with Crimea and Syria do not bode well many feel and there is concern about their intentions towards Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. Putin and the Kremlin are clearly absolutely delighted with this result as it gives them free rein in the Middle East, Crimea, Eastern Europe and Baltic States. If Trump questions NATO then this puts the security of Europe at serious risk and it risks being the Second World War but the other way around. EU leaders are absolutely completely terrified of this election result as it comes on top of BREXIT which scared them enough already. 
After the Great Depression in the 1930s a similar trend happened as people became disaffected due to the economic problems as a result they became more protectionist. While direct comparison is not possible as there are differences in context and times. But in the 1930s this resulted in the election of Hitler in Germany and we know how well that went.
I am not saying that election of Trump is an equivalent as this is clearly not the case. But nevertheless we have to learn the lessons of history and we more aware of rising discontent that appears to follow periods of great economic uncertainty such as the Great Depression and the Great Recession. If not handled carefully such turbulent and unpredictable times lead to possibly dangerous forces being unleashed including protectionism, nationalism and fear of the unknown or foreigner. I am seriously concerned that after the Great Recession in 2008 we now may be in a new period of turbulent protectionism and unpredictable change and who knows where it may lead.

While Germany had a troubled start into his first real democarcy, French occupation of the Rheinland, the Ruhrgebiet, the raging Inflation from 1921 till ´23/24 it became economic stable. But with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 the Great Depression hit Germany at first.
All loans from the USA had been withdrawn immediately. Those guaranteed the economic growth in Germany and necessary for the Reparation payments to the WWI Allies.
The Republican President in the USA had no clue what he was ordering.
What was following, was the failiure of "finance caroussel". The Allies in Europe had depts to pay in the USA and could not any longer.
The United Kingdom left the gold standard, but did fall into a depression lasting into the early 1950s. Italy´s finance system broke, as those of all southern European countries. Eastern Europe went into an atmosphere of hostility. And the new "Versailles formed" countries Poland and Hungary had been in a state of dictatorship.  Same with Romania and Bulgaria, and a similar situation for Austria with its right winged "democracy". Even Switzerland was right winged in those days. And democratic countries became a minority - France, United Kingdom, the Scandinavian countries and Germany !till 1930/33 - since 1930 Germany was ruled without the parliaments vote, relying on Reichspräsident von Hindenburg.
Today we see in Poland the PIS and in Hungary the FIDES - far right winged nationalistic parties. And in Austria the FPÖ is pushing the democratic sytem.
Earl of Cruise
We often take today's nation states and governance frameworks for granted thinking that they are permanent. But this complacency is risky, they are only as permanent as long as they retain the confidence and trust of the people. At the moment this is being sorely tested and this trust and confidence of people in governments and politics is being challenged. So when this happens the unpredictable can happen with unknown consequences. The lesson for governments, politicians and the wider "establishment" is that you need to maintain the confidence and trust of the people and ensure inclusive economic growth to the benefit of all. Democracy and our long held global values are fragile and must be maintained otherwise they could be challenged and overturned.

In history is only one factor stable - CHANGE.
Nothing is granted or fixed for eternity. Therefore, we all have to fight for democratic rights, for acceptance and plurality. In the very moment, when we start to rise walls and do the Hedgehog trick, to prevent others to disturb us, or influence us, we have lost -then we have lost our self-confidence, the believing in our strength and in democracy.
Earl of Cruise
This leaves Britain in a very difficult situation - on the way out of the EU and our closest ally America under Trump apparently questioning NATO and the special relationship with UK. The worst possible scenario we can imagine but sadly it is now reality. Now only Canada and its young Prime Minister are left to stand up for global values, open and liberal thinking.
But we shall have to see how things play out. However in the short term volatility of the financial markets is likely, some Americans may consider emigrating to Canada and elsewhere and tourists from Europe and elsewhere may be less keen on visiting America.
Our three great fears: BREXIT plus Trump and the existing situation of Putin's Russia have come true and now present the worse case scenario. Indeed it may in fact now be a strong possibility that this protectionist and anti establishment trend will take greater hold in Europe with a strong possibility that Le Pen could win the French Presidential Election in 2017. Italy is also taking a risk in December 2016 with a referendum on changes to their constitution. Dutch, Austrian and German elections in 2017 also present a risk of a more protectionist move perhaps leading in Germany to the removal of Angela Merkel as leader. This could seriously destabilise the EU if it were to happen as Germany is the EU's main economic power and provides leadership, stability and considerable soft power. If Angela Merkel were to not be leader it is unclear who would provide this leadership and stability in the European Union.
Indeed it is rumoured that Trump may appoint Nigel Farage as US Ambassador to the European Union! Sarah Palin may also be on the way back! You could argue that this is the largest corporate takeover in history as Trump Corporation takes over America! 
So the world watches developments with interest and trepidation. On the plus side it may make George W. Bush look like a good President with his great success with the Iraq War! The silver lining with George W. Bush is that he loved his daughters and dogs. Likewise Trump is a great businessman and a billionaire and loves his family.
All we can do with Trump is hope that the rhetoric of his campaign may be tempered by reality and his advisors. But his political inexperience and lack of foreign policy gives grave concerns to those looking in on America. Who knows what will happen next.

This "he will be tempered" thought was the very same, when Germany got this Austrian wallpainter for his first period as Reichskanzler in January 1933 ...
Earl of Cruise
We must learn the lessons of history while realising that government, democracy, values, peace and the nation state only remains as the status quo if it continually has the confidence and trust of its people. These are undoubtedly  turbulent and unpredictable times.
We must stand up for our values, peace, freedom and democracy. They are fragile and must not be taken for granted. 
Perhaps Canada can step up and become a global leader and beacon for hope and openness. Let's hope so.

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