What impact will Mr. Trump, now President-Elect, have on the cruise and travel market?

Mr. Trump, now being President-Elect, will have an impact on markets, the travel and cruise especially.

by Earl of Cruise

quotings from Sarah Jones, Stephanie Rosenbloom and others

Image courtesy DER SPIEGEL

It was one of the most stunning upsets in U.S. politics: Donald Trump brought the Republicans to victory, defying the polls, defeating Hillary Clinton and shocking the world and its various markets.

After Mr. Trump´s unexpected victory, travel experts and economists were asked to try and read the tea leaves. Below, they offer some early thoughts about how Mr. Trump’s presidency might affect tourism, including foreign travel to the United States, Americans traveling abroad, access to Cuba, the cost of airfare, and, of course, Trump Hotels.

With Donald J. Trump, President-Elect, set to become the 45th president of the United States, the spirit of openness that has permeated everything from the increasingly global economy to how we and the US citizens travel may be poised to change.

The President-Elect, Mr. Trump, voiced in his campagin the fears of those who feel neglected by the establishment, and did not see any longer their chance to be part of the "American Dream". From 1981 till 2016 the middle class, the backbone of each economy, droped from 59% to 51%. In other countries similar - e.g. Germany 69% in 1981 to 62% in 2016. And 62% in the USA feel they loose and lost economically, have no longer an equal chance and fear globalisation. The strange, the foreigner, the immigrant and the establishment is rejected and they/you look for healing in isolation.

While on the campaign trail, Mr. Trump came out strongly against free trade. He has promised to impose high taxes on goods coming into the United States. He too has been particularly vocal about his dislike of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (between 12 Pacific countries including Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico) and TTIP. Mr. Trump has not addressed tourism specifically, but on the campaign trail he has signaled a retrenchment from globalism. He has talked about the possibility of reversing course with Cuba, barring Muslims from entering the United States, and building a wall along the border with Mexico.

Experts say that how attractive the United States continues to be to foreign tourists will depend on how affordable and how admirable it is to visit. What, if any policies the Trump administration puts into place - new immigration procedures that make the customs and border process harder, the scrutiny of particular groups of people, and the perception of how welcoming and safe or not the United States for foreigners is.

TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES

"More money is spent in the United States by international travelers than anywhere else in the world," said Adam Sacks, president of TOURISM ECONOMICS, an Oxford Economics company based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

"If certain groups are targeted, if hate speech is tolerated against certain ethnicities, inbound travel will dry up," said Henry Harteveldt, the founder of ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH GROUP, a travel industry research company. "It will be bad for us."

While cruising on board the CARNIVAL TRIUMPH for a cruise review in March 2003, I have experienced for the first time a soft form of hate speech, when being adressed by a fellow passenger as "odd German" ... it was for Germany´s reaction on the eve of the 2nd Irak War. To me it was a first experiencing such "closed minds" in the States. But hearing the hate speeches during the Trump campaign from supporters, I become concerned. As I heared/read too old WWI and WWII terms against German people and Germany.

Berkeley High School students begin to march after assembling in front of Sproul Hall on the UC Berkeley campus - image courtesy from HUFFINGTON POST

"There are people in Mexico, Latin America, the Middle East who view Trump with suspicion and concern," stated Mr. Harteveldt, who is also a former marketing director for TRUMP SHUTTEL, an airline that Mr. Trump used to own, which went into bancrupcy, "and I think he is going to have to show that he can be magnanimous and can have a broader vision, which will be very important for international trade and inbound tourism."

	If the USA is turning in total into a "no-go-area", because of racism, no longer being open to visitors, then the tourism will decline, as the steel industry, which went to other places, because of management failiures. For these, nobody can blame the Unions. And visitors will not accept to be seen and treated as intruders ... When not welcomed, then ...
	On Election Day, Royal Jordanian encapsulated such concerns when the airline tweeted an advertisement for its fares that said: “Just in case he wins ... Travel to the U.S. while you’re still allowed to!"

Indeed, Gus Faucher, deputy chief economist with the PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, said: "Foreign tourists might be reluctant to visit the United States after the election not only because of Mr. Trump’s `nationalist´ campaign, but also because of the relative strength of the dollar. The strength of the dollar plays an important role." And the dollar could certainly lose strength, say some in the financial world, depending on Mr. Trump’s policies.

Gary Leff, the founder of the VIEW FROM THE WING travel blog and a co-founder of the frequent flier site INSIDEFLYER.com, agreed that: "For now, the world likely sees the United States as less open to tourism and immigration." (The day after the election, Rafat Ali, the founder of SKIFT, a travel news and research company, tweeted, that the industry was “gobsmacked” and that attendees at the WORLD TRAVEL MARKET LONDON conference were coming up and “offering condolences.”) That perception is not good for airlines and hotels, Mr. Leff said, though in the short term it could mean that travelers benefit from lower airfares.

It remains to be seen whether those sentiments last, and if there will be actual policy changes that help or hurt travel to the United States.

Few think that Mr. Trump, and whomever he appoints to his cabinet, will carry out mass deportations and erect a wall between the United States and Mexico, if only because of the impracticalities of such endeavors. “I don’t believe he will build a wall,” said Mr. Harteveldt of Atmosphere Research Group. But he said: "I am concerned that Mr. Trump might break with NATO, and that he might make it more difficult for people to get visas."

In 1933, when Germany got the` Austrian wallpainter´, Hitler, as Reichskanzler, nobody did believe his words he once wrote in his infamous book `Mein Kampf´. It was from the beginning, that USA was dominating the NATO, and is, and rejected all attempts of its European Allies to be more "freed" of the US dominace. One of the reasons, why France under Charles de Gaulle has terminated its membership - not only beacause of the "French arrogance", as I heard recently.

Mr. Sacks of Tourism Economics said: "Policy proposals that would undermine longstanding alliances, along with Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, could certainly hurt tourism to the United States. But by how much?"

He and his team examined data from 2000 to 2006, comparing arrivals to the United States with the PEW RESEARCH CENTER’s favorability index, which rates America’s image. "The takeaway was that while there was a correlation between the perception of a place and the growth in visits to that place, it wasn’t a strong one. Even if Trump the president is not more conciliatory than Trump the campaigner," Mr. Sacks said, "the United States is still likely to be an aspirational travel destination because of its arts, culture and diversity. That’s not going to change in a wholesale way."

AMERICANS AND THE COST OF TRAVELING ABROAD

Whether Americans travel internationally depends largely on the health of the U.S. economy. A weaker dollar could hurt outbound tourism.

"Travel is a discretionary product," said Mr. Harteveldt. "If the economy isn’t good, travel is always one of the first areas where consumers start to cut back."

On the other hand, Mr. Faucher of PNC Financial Services Group said: "If high-earning Americans end up seeing tax cuts under Mr. Trump, they might decide to travel more."

The cost of airfare will be interesting to watch. United States legacy airlines like AMERICAN AIRLINES, UNITED AIRLINES and DELTA AIRLINES don’t want more competition. They want American travelers to buy their (costly) tickets. To that end, they have been fighting to limit access to the American market by major Gulf carriers like ETIHAD, EMIRATES and QUATAR AIRWAYS, which would breed competition, pushing the airlines to improve, not only to better service and to lower airfares.

With these airlines I see some similarities with the steel industry. Insted of being innovative, these very airlines "cry" for protectionism. At sea one can see this protectionism working in the "Jones Act" which was installed in the mid 19th century, pre Civil War, to protect the US shipping lines from competitors, and has been widend within the years and is still existing and preventing competition and perhaps innovation.

While that would be a boon to travelers, Mr. Leff said: "The legacy airlines are hoping to prevent it by capitalizing on Mr. Trump’s `protectionism´ to keep their competitors at bay. If that protectionist attitude prevails, options will continue to be limited and prices will continue to be high."

Still, the decision to travel will ultimately be `about´ more than `money´. It will also hinge on how Americans think they will be treated when they go abroad. This is something people typically gauge based on what they are seeing in State Department reports, news media and on their fellow travelers´ FACEBOOK and TWITTER feeds. They will ask themselves whether they feel `is it safe to travel´, or whether they think, by virtue of their president, they will be targets of anti-American sentiments. "We are all ambassadors of our country," said Mr. Harteveldt. "You don’t want to be attacked or harassed or looked down upon as an American."

TRAVELING TO CUBA

Cuba is only just opening up to the United States, yet it is already on many travelers’ bucket lists.

Airlines and cruise ships have begun taking US Americans there, and more hotels are in the works. But during the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump said that unless there is greater political freedom on the island, he might reverse the historic agreement President Obama made with President Raúl Castro of Cuba. Are US Americans still likely to be able to go?

"There’s some risk to Cuba policy changing," said Mr. Leff, "because Mr. Trump could issue his own directive." Additionally, Mr. Leff said: "The uncertainty surrounding Cuba could delay investment there in terms of new hotels and other travel-related infrastructure, slowing tourism."

Mr. Harteveldt, however, thinks: "Mr. Trump won’t necessarily back off international trade with Cuba and other places because four years from now, he probably would like to see Trump-branded hotels open in more cities and more countries."

More TRUMP branded hotels to be errected, would be a conflict of intersts! Becoming president to promote his business? Which I think is rather unethical. Has Mr. Trump just not been accused of interest conflicts, when proposing his children for offices? A mix of privat interests with those of the office IS corruption.

NEW INFRASTRUCTURE

In his victory speech on Nov. 9th, the President-Elect said he planned to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure - including airports - and make it "second to none."

The Hitler administration used to construct the Autobahnen (highways). This was developed by the last democratic Reichskanzler of Weimar, Mr Heinrich Brüning. This state investment propelled the depts in hights, never seen before.

"We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals," Mr. Trump said during his victory speech. "We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it. That could generate jobs and help the economy."

"Exactly how that huge increase in spending - Mr. Trump has pledged to spend nearly $1 trillion on infrastructure - will be paid for is unclear," said Mr. Leff.

Assuming the administration of Mr. Trump will find a way to make it happen (more recently he has suggested creating a federal infrastructure fund supported by government bonds), infrastructure projects still take years. So while there may be new roads and airports, this is a change that is unlikely to happen in the near term.

Change is one thing the industry can be sure of when Mr. Trump takes office.

"He could be one of the most travel-friendly presidents in modern history," said Mr. Harteveldt, noting that Mr. Trump has long been part of the travel industry and was deeply involved in the marketing of the TRUMP SHUTTLE in its early days - experience that could he put to use thinking of ways to make the United States a more welcoming and appealing destination. Or, Mr. Harteveldt continued, "Mr. Trump could be one of the most travel-unfriendly presidents. He has the potential to be at either end of the continuum."

"The only unlikely outcome," Mr. Harteveldt added, "is that Mr. Trump will be in the middle."

HOW WILL THE CRUISE INDUSTRY REACT TO OUR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOME?

I am wondering, since the cruise industry have to plan itineraries far ahead, what the cruise industry is doing, if anything, based on the election result?  One has to imagine the Trump election would make US American less welcome as visitors abroad. Especially in those countries who´s inhabitants Mr. Trump has insulted ... so nearly the whole world.

It depends on how much money US citizens have in the wallet to toss around in port. No cruise line executive had publicly commented on the possibility of a Trump election despite the obvious implications for the travel industry.

Ships, several of them larger vessels, like the CELEBRITY EQUINOX, are being redeployed in 2017 from Europe to the Caribbean. Summer and fall sailings in the Caribbean seem to be enjoying an upturn. The fact is that a portion of the US American public, particularly those who gravitate to the mass market lines, are avoiding Europe. This has more to do with a general concern about terrorism, last years and autumn 2016 acts of terrorism, as witnessed in Nice and elsewhere, than it does with the presidential election campaign and the outcome. It  is fair to say that the political mood does not serve to encourage US citizens overseas travel.

The less I really know about on the other side of my own boarders, the less I feel secure to go there ... Not travelling is showing no interest in new things, and to be educated. Travelling is education - Oscar Wilde

In the US consulting sector they are seeing a trend toward closer to home cruising. Alaska, for example, has lost market share over the past several years. US travel consultants think that will begin changing in 2017. Canada and US Coastal cruises will see increasing demand.

The concern among many industry leaders is that a Trump presidency will likely produce an anti-American backlash that will heavily impact travel abroad. But it should also be remembered that a great number of high-end luxury cruise travelers identify themselves as conservative Republicans. For some, a Trump presidency will be a sign of a hopeful future.

But what about those from outside the USA, are they willing taking a cruise on a ship, primarily designed and configuarated for and filled with US citizens?

The USA is not alone in experiencing the growth of a right wing, anti-immigrant wave of political power.

"Many of our allies in Europe have similar issues so they are hardly in a position to cast blame our way," told me a befriended consultant. I dare say, we can do it, and we are allowed to do so! Why? As from the USA allways came an andvice or criticising if! Especially as a German with a European family background, and as educated historian. We have seen it once after the 1929 Stock Crash and the irratic results. Starting in the USA, then in Europe, and then came 1933 ... We have seen it once ... hopefully not again! Another fact for "to blame" is: the USA is not a minor economy to be ignored, as if isolated on on a tiny little island, or being a "Banana Republic" - when Wall Street tend to cough, the world can get a flew ...

The European press is almost universally anti-Trump and his election may well provoke dormant anti-Americanism in some major port cities. What will happen is a more reserved attidude against US travellers and cruise passengers. For most travelers abroad, with Mr. Trump as the US President, the biggest change they will likely see is an attitude that the American voter has elected someone who is so ignorant regarding the outside world. Trump’s official biographer, Michael D´Antonio, has said publicly, that there is no instance he can recall where Trump has ever referenced reading a book of any kind.

Both Democrats and Republicans have contributed to the dumbing down of the US American society. Perhaps Trump exists to remind us of that fact.

I myself was often in the USA, visiting relatives, enjoying the welcoming and openess of American people and the country. But with 9/11 the country changed dramatically. Still open in cities like San Francisco, New York, etc., but closing more and more just a few miles across the borders of even these cities.

November 9th was allways, coincidently, a special date for us Germans. Nov 9th 1918 we declared to be a republic, Nov 9th 1938 the Reichskristallnacht, Nov 9th the fall of Berliner Mauer, Nov 9th the whole world affecting elction of Mr. Trump ... sorry, but his grandfather emmigrated from Schwaben to the US ... Don´t blame us, his mother is from Scotland ...

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