Coming Travel and Cruise Trends for 2018

The coming trends for 2018 in travel and cruise.

"Follow the trend lines, not the headlines." - Bill Clinton
We live in unsettling times. Up is down, left is right, losers win, and reality show "stars" become presidents. Who really knows what is going on - let alone what will be. The wonderful world of travel, and cruise especially, is no different. No one has a proverbial crystal ball and the annual rituals of forecasting more usually need to offer mea culpas on last year’s prognostications.
by Earl of Cruise

 The new AIDAprima with a new hull concept, as well partly LNG fuelled - courtsey AIDA CRUISES

While the algorithms of Big Data make it easier (do they really?), as well more threatening (Design and Analysis of Algorithms) - setting us on a mindset, that we like, wish to see/read, without knowing it!, these days to see nuances, in the end, demographic trends are just that - demographic trends - that always increase. (Every year there are more solo travelers because, hm ..., there are more solo travelers!) And old travel metric analysis, with the likes of: the Robinson Crusoe Index identifying the best beaches, the Big Mac Index that costs out burgers globally, and the Bribe Payers Index, and so much more leave me thinking. And each and every media is publishing the 10 to 15 best places or cruise ships/lines to go. Me included with some Greek cities ... Most are as my  personal view, and I love Greece.
Unsatisfied with those mostly travel industry-derived and PR firm written indicators (loyalty plans will be devalued, coach class will get tighter, AirBnB will grow, and Cuba will be the new hot travel destination), William D. Chalmers annually offer readers some rather untraditional 21st-century mashup travel metrics observed and culled from year’s worth of traveling the globe. William recently published a new book AMERICA´s VACATION DEFICIT DISORDER.
PR firms and industry published trends can´t be unpartisan, as "Whose bread I eat, whose song I sing".

courtsey CLIA

Me, I was travelling since childhood, similar to William. I was lucky enough having a grandmére that took me with her on her voyages across Europe and to USA. It was a spoiling experience. I got used to 1st class travelling and for that I know about. And todays so called first class is nothing more than a mass market targetting, which is for the real first class voyagers a chi-chi. Not worth their money. Only ashore there is an real offer in true luxury hotels, but at sea ... a desert nothing except luxury charter yachts.The real rich, new and old, use private charter or own jets to get off.

 

America’s Vacation Deficit Disorder - courstsey AMAZON

Workers are starting to comprehend the strong relationship between wellness and taking time off (AKA vacations); with enlightened employers leading the charge. Vacation shaming is so 2015. Wellness travel is growing 50% faster than regular travel, with travelers recognizing that recharging, refreshing and rejuvenating themselves regularly is part of a healthy work-life balance. Smart value-minded employers are investing in their employees time-off knowing that a happy, creative and fresh employee - is a motivated and profitable employee. St. Barts here we come! 

Coming Travel and Cruise Trends for 2018 baby boomers - courtsey MERCER

The term Wellness, used for the first time in 1654 in a monograph by Sir A. Johnson as '... wealnesse' in the Oxford English Dictionary in the meaning of 'good health', stands in modern understanding of a holistic health concept and since the 1950s in the US is the epitome of a new kind of health movement.
In a study Mercer has examined the holiday and holiday regulations in more than 40 countries around the world. The figures are based on the leave entitlement of a worker who works five days a week and has been working in the company for ten years. Saturdays and Sundays are not valid as holidays / working days. This is the result:

Country	Statutory holiday entitlement/days	Holidays /days
Finland	30	10	Sundays are not included, but Saturdays
Brazil	30	11
France	30	10	The law prescribes five weeks of paid holiday, that is 30 calendar days + Sundays.
Russia	28	12
United Kingdom / Great Britain	28	8
USA	10	6	Payments for the Holidays depend on the grace of employers
	In 2014, 42 percent of Americans did not take any of their already sparse holidays. They work longer and more often than the Germans. Because in the land of unlimited possibilities much is impossible. The long summer holidays of the Germans are surreal to the Americans - and almost offensive. Whoever is free will be considered lazy or insufficiently resilient. Research is diverse.
Spain	22	14	The holiday paid is at least 30 calendar days or 22 working days
Germany	20	10	However, companies generally grant 30 free working days. The number of holidays varies between nine and 13 depending on the region
Canada	10	9	The legal holiday arrangements vary between the individual provinces. The figures refer to Ontario
South Africa	21	12	21 consecutive paid holiday days per year. This equals three weeks' leave
An employee is entitled to five paid holidays when the period of employment is more than one or less than ten years. For ten or less than 20 years, there are ten holidays. In the 15 old EU member states and Norway there are an average of 26.7 holiday days.

According to a study by the market researcher Oxford Economics on behalf of the association U.S. Travel Association, 169 million holiday days are lost in the US each year. This means that employees pay employers a yearly rate of 52.4 billion dollars. "Americans are working martyrs," the study says. "They are tied to the office, they leave unused payouts every year, give up something they deserve, and work basically for nothing."

At sea we see more and more SPA included offers, or those which exclude, only for extra payment, the "normal" cruisers from the SPA use. They now have to pay on the most vessels an extra fee only for entering the SPA zone. This trend is at sea holidays on cruise ships as well as ahore.

Another trend is showing, the mass market lines are ordering vessels with smaller capacities. but even these lower capacities of around 3,000 pax on board are still floating cities which flood each destination, especially when more than one of these "smaller" fun boats are embarking.

The Connectivity Index

ONE WORLD non stop connections from London - courtsey ONE WORLD

It is William D. Chalmers firm belief that you can now go anywhere and be anywhere within 24 to 30 hours. Regional low-cost carriers have proliferated globally; and over the past decade, airlines have added over 10,000 new routes - a 37 percent increase - serving more than 37,000 city pairs. There are now 1,280 international airports serving 48,977 routes worldwide. That means that secondary destinations are making the world smaller and cheaper!

The Competitive Travel Index

The more mundane our daily routines, the more ambitious our adventures. Today travelers want authentic in the age of reality TV, and are no longer satisfied being force-fed dull cruises or sleep on the beach vacations. They want adventurous participatory experiences (site-doing) and to be challenged. Exciting travel adventure products have begun to fill their soul-aching void, like: the regional rickshaw rallies of Southeast Asia, and the mac daddy of all competitive travel, the annual world travel championship known as THE GLOBALSCAVENGER HUNT  (GLOBAL SCAVENGER HUNT web site). Competitive adventures like these, allow the most jaded and adventurous travelers to test their savvy and Travel IQ against the world’s best. Maybe we’ll see travel as an Olympic sport in 2024?

Cruise lines do seak new destinations too, especially the Chinese market, with vessels designed to cater the most enticing market of the future. Maybe we will see not only cruise vessels for the Chinese citizens along the Chinese coast and in Chinese Sea, Japan or South Korea, but too special Chinese cruise vessels sailing global.

 THE GLOBAL SCAVENGER HUNT - courtsey THE GLOBAL SCAVENGER HUNT

Airline Ticket Futures Index

Millennial travelers are online 24/7 and always looking for the "best deals”. But the vagaries of the airline industry’s dynamic pricing create a lot of angst in the era of microaggressions, safe spaces and triggers that unfettered capitalism unleash. Flying is viewed as commodity - the lowest price wins - so why not an airline ticket futures market? With would-be travelers visiting on average 161 travel websites - before finally narrowing it down to 48 visits to eight sites - before reluctantly booking; finding the cheapest fare is harder than just clearing your cookies and search engine history. Watch for mega-search sites like FLYR and Hopper, and like-minded upstarts, that accurately predict (with a 95% accuracy?) the lowest airfare prices, to not only offer advice on when to buy, but start selling price insurance policies that lock-in airfares - airline ticket futures.

The Xenophobic Travel Index

When ROYAL JORDANIAN election day ad said: "Travel to the U.S. - while you are still allowed to!", take heed. While reprehensible, travelers need to be vigilant for a turbulent xenophobic backlash of nasty US-versus-Themism; with the creation of travel barriers - both at home and abroad. Look for travel to moderate Islamic nations, to take a big hit. And look for reactionary fear-based American policy to begin building a type of Veiled Wall of screening, security and surveillance around Islamic nations by redlining them - not allowing Americans to travel there (unless there is a Trump-brand hotel of course!), or earning the CBP third degree when they do; along with declaring their traveler’s persona non grata in the USA, full stop. The Babel drawbridge is being pulled up with legislation sure to radically alter the tourist visa wavier for some 20 million visitors a year coming to America (who spend over $4,000 per visitor) and look for a tit-for-tat diplomatic escalation of traveler inconveniences (and costs) to rise. On the flipside: Contrarian Travelers who calculate the odds and balance the risks knowing that the world is a 95% conflict free zone (do they really know? or the alternative facts?) and the chances of them being directly affected by terrorism is akin to winning power ball. They will enjoy cheaper prices, less crowded destinations and great emotional payoffs, while becoming the true traveling ambassadors for America, behaving provided. They will also use Facebook’s check-in feature to inform friends that they are safe.

This is used too for cruises.

The Loving it to Death Tax Index

Tourists in Kâmpŭchéa, Angkor Wat - courtsey mytraveltube.de

Face it, we travelers in our never-ending quest to see everything are slowly killing the Golden Goose. It is a ranking travel paradox of our time: Our irresistible urge to destroy what we are attracted to - we are loving places to death.

Once exclusive hot, must-see, once-in-a-lifetime Shangri-La-like dream destinations like: Angkor, Venice, Machu Picchu, Beaches - like that of the film THE BEACH, Galapagos, and the Louvre, (you name it), all have skyrocketing demand. Venice and Dubrovnik are another example for. While Venice has some 60,000 inhabitants, has Dubrovnik only 10% 6,000. But the number of daily tourists is nearly the same. With the entrance fee for a walk on the medieaval wall Ragusa (the ancient name of Dubrovnik) can pave its streets with gold. But Venice has the burden without the same benefit. And everybody who claims it is not, does not know the facts. In first place is Venice only a port of embarkation and disembarkation - passenger change. During those days sometimes 80,000 guests arrive or leave, and flood the city, but their spending is in comparison only a dime ... Both citizens are anoyed by overdemanding, loud and noisy tourists, who don´t respect the last of privacy of the inhabitants.

Very often I hear managers from tour operators and/or cruise lines, they don´t let us come ... some countries are a bit more sensitive about their enviroment and cultural heritage.

It leads to what Harvard professors, Paul F. Nunes and Mark Spelman term "scarcity of place”. And when demand goes up and scarcity occurs, something has got to give. Look for tourism caps to be introduced like ski resorts only selling so many daily lift tickets; watch for dynamic pricing to begin increasing during peak times - like Uber’s surge charges - and destinations maybe even using a lottery system to limit visitors during peak holiday times. Bottom line: prices will go up.

We konw the examples - Venice and Dubrovnik in the Adriatic, most of the Caribbean Islands, where the term `Cruise Day´has been created. Its meaning is: tourists swamp the island in thousands like a force of nature ... Another "remote" place is Antarctica, where the enviroment is really sensitive.

Small-scale "expedition tourism" has existed since 1957, most offered via cruise ships, and is currently subject to Antarctic Treaty and Environmental Protocol provisions, but in effect self-regulated by the InternationalAssociation of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Not all vessels associated with Antarctic tourism are members of IAATO, but IAATO members account for 95% of the tourist activity. Travel is largely by small or medium ship, focusing on specific scenic locations with accessible concentrations of iconic wildlife. A total of 37,506 tourists visited during the 2006–07 Austral summer with nearly all of them coming from commercial ships; 38,478 were recorded in 2015–16.There has been some concern over the potential adverse environmental and ecosystem effects caused by the influx of visitors. Some environmentalists and scientists have made a call for stricter regulations for ships and a tourism quota.

Antarctica Magic of the White Continent - courtsey PONANT CRUISES

The primary response by Antarctic Treaty Parties has been to develop, through their Committee for Environmental Protection and in partnership with IAATO, "site use guidelines" setting landing limits of a max of 300 tourists per day and closed or restricted zones on the more frequently visited sites. Therefore the megalodons withdraw from Anarctica.

the withdrawing of the megalodons of the cruise industry opend the door for the smaller cruise specialists. And we see a vast newbuilding program for expedition vessels.

Antarctic sightseeing flights (which did not land) operated out of Australia and New Zealand until the fatal crash of Air New Zealand Flight 901 in 1979 on Mount Erebus, which killed all 257 aboard. Qantas resumed commercial overflights to Antarctica from Australia in the mid-1990s.

The Protest Tourism Index

TIER IV emission, LNG is the fuel for the near future - courtsey ZDF

Travelers are always looking for meaning in their travels—well, some of them do anyway—and socially conscious travelers are taking to social media to shame, boycott, belittle and otherwise discourage fellow travelers from going to places deemed verboten. Whether visiting Myanmar during the general’s reign or Apartheid-era South Africa, travelers are beginning to ratchet up their angst against places like: Uganda and North Carolina for their anti-LGBT laws; Russia for its annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian aggression and meddling in the recent US elections; and even Israel, as the pro-Palestinian statehood Boycott, Divestment & Sanctions (BDS) movement gains momentum. Effective or not, look for highly socially conscious Millennials, who changed American cultural values, attempt to effect global change by choosing where to and where not to spend their money, be it: human rights, environmental degradation or cultural heritage with the most powerful words known to man: That is not right!

 

Petra, Jordania the Khazne al-Firaun - Source: Wikipedia (original seize)

As we have seen last year in Turkey, after the coup d´etat attempt of the Turkish Army against Sultanine Erdowahn, cruise lines did avoid and still avoid sailing into Turkish ports, except for the hot spot of threatening terror attacs Istambul ... SCENIC CRUISES is starting with SCENIC ECLIPSE in Istambul its inauguration sailing.

German tourists once loved the Turkish Riviera, with the cheap "5star" hotels for an apple and egg ... last year after the coup d´etat German tourists started avoiding Turkey. During ITB it was anounced that Turkey had a loss of 50% of German travellers compared to 2016, which got an immediate drop of 40% in the month after the coup d´etat in 2016. In total numbers 2,2 mio!

And with the jailings of two German journalists, one with only a German passport and another with a Turkish and German passport, by the Erdowahn police forces came another drop ... German tourists have lost their interest in even this low cost paradise and seek vacancies in more expensive destinations, such as Greece, Spain, Italy and France.

Cruise offers with Turkish ports of call, now are non-sellers in Germany.

A similar reaction is to be seen with German travellers into the USA, since the presidency of the apprentice - this year till summer, 2 mio German tourists less than 2016.

The Bargain Basement Travel Index

The race to the bottom continues unabated when full majority, 60 percent of American travelers are "price driven”; and United Airlines is following Delta’s lead by giving the people what they want: even cheaper cheap fares with what is called "basic economy” - middle seat, no luggage and no carry-ons and no bathroom privileges (just kidding on that last one; although word is UA is trying to configure a coin operated restroom). Low cost airlines such as RYANAIR snatsh customers, and the "regular" airlines have to fight against with different strategies. While people of all ages still want what Americans call "value" - and the rest of the world knows as cheap - Airbnb will continue to expand its inventory of less than stellar properties, and look for cheaper versions (shitty cars) of Uber and Lyft to arrive on the scene. In the lottery-mentality of Americans and others - if it ain’t reality-TV free, we don’t want it.

A similar trend is to be seen in the cruise industry - cheap as cheap can. COSTA and AIDA are offering 7 day/night cruises for € 469.00 ... My article The dark side of the Sun Shine Cruise Industry was about consequensences. But I have another question about the food and beverage quality - from which chemical industry company is coming the wine? Is it Down Chemical or BASF?

And the value/cheap trend has reached the luxury offerers too. SEABOURN is selling as the others with bargains. Except two: CRYSTAL and HAPAG LLOYD CRUISES. But as Jonathan Anderson, creative director of Spanish leather fashion producer LOEWE, said: "The term luxury is in need of a rebrand. "ROYAL CARIBBEAN just announced that they close their German office in Frankfurt ... a reaction on the Bargain Bargain Bargain trend. From now on they want to serve the German speaking contries, Spain, France and Italy from Barcelona ... the countries covered are very differently not only in language, but too in mentality. And the way to the travel agancies is so much longer, and the distance is "clearing" problems. "Why should I think of them? They arre far away ..." RCCL explained the service will be served with the local language. I would predict it will be cheaper Spanish employees with not the experience of the country and language they will have to serve.

Whoever gives discounts, was too expensive. Or the product is not the right, or too old.

Finally, I am as optimistic as anyone (In fact: my glass is half full right now!), but please don’t tell me that either virtual reality travel ("Google goes rafting down the Colorado River so you don’t have to!") or Elon Musk’s space travel boondoggle are going to trend in 2017 - imagination and great demos don’t create trends, reality does. And until they do, let’s leave it off our travel trends list in favor of real and satisfying terrestrial pursuits.

The Clash once sang that, "...the future is unwritten.” Happy trails in 2017/18.

Cruise trends - long distance voyages

Repositioning cruises, especially on the Atlantic. People tend to book these cruises more than expected by the lines, who started selling these repositioning voyages only to fill-up the cash flow and reduce the costs for cruising empty. Some cruises are nearly sold out when announced.

These repositionings give the customers a slight feeling of what it may have been in the heyday of liner travel, when the ocean liner, passenger ship, was the only way to cross the pond, or get into another continent. When it got clearer for the shipping lines they started selling the liner voyages as extended cruises. So did COSTA with their EUGENIO C. or P&O with their CANBERRA and ORIANA. Or UNION CASTLE and SAF MARINE with WINDSOR CASTLE and S.A. VAAL, which became later CARNIVAL´s third Fun Cruiser.

CANBERRA in Sydney, the P&O liner was for a long one the most innovative vessels afloat - own collction

When jet air travel was still extraordinary expensive, but much more comfortable and faster than propeeler flights, to get f.e. to from United Kingdom to Australia or South Africa, travellers had to board the liners, as it was less expensive and gave vacation days as an extra, especially for emigrants to Australia. Till the mid and late 1970s liners had been employed on the route to Down Under.

But when jet airline tickets got cheaper, beginning in the late 1970s and beginning 1980s, the crowds boarded planes and flew. The last liners to Australia had to get a new employment. CANBERRA and ORIANA would have been transformed into cruise vessels. The most but had been finally laid up, sold for scrab or to other companied who tried to start their cruise businesses.

Still a great number of passengers from the airlines don´t love to fly, because of fear of flying, or they feel even in first class still as pressed in a tube ... imagine ~800 passengers in a A380 in "Wood Class" configuration ... to me a horror. But similar a 3,000 guest vessel on a long distance voyage.

There is a certain demand for long distance travelling at sea, where the cruise companies don´t have an answer, as their boats are only able to sail for a week, then they have to be refueld, revictualized and even as severe - the modern cruise ships are no deap water ships, but for the "coastal cruise". We have seen the "reaction of the QUANTUM Class vessel in Feb. 2016, when ANTHEM OF THE SEAS was hit by a hurricane of category 2 on the Atlantic. the weather forecasts told of better sea conditions, but nature had its own will. 5,000 guests and 1,000 crew aboard ... I won´t imagine what could have happen.

Coming Travel and Cruise Trends for 2018 project Orient - courtsey STX FRANCE

Sensing the rising demand for long distance travels by ship, back in September 2013, project ORIENT LIMITED (headed by cruise guru Nigel Lingard) were in discussions with STX France for two newbuilds of around 70,000 tons with a capacity for 1,600 passengers, that would resurrect the UK-Australia halcyon days year-round, but as a cruise rather than a liner voyage. The project never materialised, but could have been hugely successful today.

above and below: intended interior of the Project ORIENT cruise liners - courtsey STX FRANCE

For these, and only these liner voyages recreating vessels, the term "cruise liner" could have been correct, as the intention was to line voyages, but as cruises!

A brilliant idea, catering a rising demand, but no financing abilities for, as the financing industry is focussed on the mass market cruise shipping industry. It is "proven", so it is a "secure" investment and "all are doing it". It was back then classified as a high-high risk financing, and as financial crisis was and is still raging, even high risk capital fled when the project had been proposed ...

There is, for sure, a definite under-capacity on line voyages (whether repositioning voyages or a sector of a world cruise) between Australasia (Transindic) and Europe or U.S West Coast (Transpacific), or to South America. Demand exceeds availability. But whilst, yes, most get booked up as soon as they’re announced (a year or so in advance), invariably these are the suites and balcony cabins. ASTOR’s annual repositioning to/from Australia is a good example - where cabins are still available. ASTOR is offering only three real balcony cabins and a greater number of French Balcony cabins. The intended equal offers with FUNCHAL did not materialize, as she offers not even French Balconies, and is a bit crowded when filled to the max. with passengers.

It is stated that this increasing demand for longer (line) voyages - rather than short cruises - is flamed by the so-called `Millennials´ and `BabyBoomers´ who have taken early retirement or, post-parenthood, have settled into a new lifestyle. I always amusingly remember the President of SEADREAM YACHT CLUB, Atle Brynestad, describing baby-boomers as "people who refuse to age” and lead incredibly active lives.

But after the `Baby Boomers´ the birth rate is sinking dramatically in the industrialized nations, and the first `Baby Boomers´ can´t travel any longer, as even they got too old for ... And the youngsters get the cruise vibe, but on another, higher, level as some experts predicted or did see.

`Baby Boomers´ are by the way those who fought for liberal rights, human rights, "invented" the "revolutions of 68", started the rock-n-roll era and disco music trend (Studio 54), made the "sexual revolution", etc.

"So, yes, there is a strong will to resurrect the old liner runs (not least for those, like myself, who can’t stand long-haul flights) - and, yes, there are plans in the pipeline for such a service, but stepping back in time 4 centuries with a classic ship … for those that don’t want amusement parks, waterparks, multiple fast-food outlets, or the push-and-shove of 3,000 other passengers." Alan Dumelow

The newest cruise vessels have by the way more "human" seized passenger capacities with around 3,000 guests on board ... still a number I do not want to sail with.

VIRGIN VOYAGES anounced vessels to build with a max of 2,700 sailors - no longer guests or passengers! - and the megalodons of the cruise industry followed the trend and ordered "smaller guest numbers seized" vessels for themselves. It will not be enough, I am quite sure VIRGIN, and Sir Richard, will rattle the cruise industry with new standards for the mass (volume) market, that will be like a hurricane sweeping around.

Cruise trends - Balcony Cabins

Today no cruise line or their vessels are without balcony cabins, or some sort of. Some are spacious, some are like chicken stalls ... and older vessels get an upgrade with newly installed or cut in balconies, more like loggias, or French Balconies to stand in the market within the new so called "luxurious" cruise ships.

The PRINCESS CRUISES vessel ROYAL PRINCESS, christend by then HRH Diana, Princess of Wales, was the first cruise ship with a) only outside cabins and b) the majority of cabins as balcony cabins. ROYAL PRINCESS realized the coming mega trend in its lay out. She was a 5star offer back then, Even as the ARTEMIS for P&O. Now she is sailing as ARTANIA for the 3star tour operator PHOENIX SEEREISEN.

While regular cruise ship rooms are nice, balcony rooms can feel extra luxurious. Balcony rooms give you the opportunity to escape the crowded decks and unwind on your own private terrance.
This all sounds great, but the truth is that these rooms can be much pricier than a typical suite so you may want to consider whether it's really worth it. If you’re embarking on a week-long cruise, you may want to spend the extra money since you'll have more time at sea.  

Please, review these tips before booking a cruise ship balcony room.
Before you book your balcony room you should always "think about the region in which you are going to be cruising and how much you are really going to want to be outside using your balcony,” Mollie Fitzgerald co-owner of Frontiers International Travel, says.
Don’t be shy when consulting with your cruise line and ask plenty of questions before booking. The last thing you want is to purchase an expensive room with a balcony and end up with an obstructed view. How big the space? Does the balcony come with furniture? Where is it in relation to notoriously busy outdoor hangouts,or elevators and gathering hallways?
A balcony makes the cabin more airier, especially, when there are big glas sliding doors.
Here are some things to consider before booking your next cruise.
Research the region!
"Think about the region in which you are going to be cruising and how much you are really going to want to be outside using your balcony,” Mollie Fitzgerald, co-owner of Frontiers International Travel, says.
For instance, if you are cruising in Indonesia or Southeast Asia, where it can be very hot and humid, book a balcony cabin only when you can stand the humid climate! Or perhaps in Scandinavia where it is often very chilly in autumn and spring, the balcony may not be in play that often or worth the extra upcharge compared to the Caribbean or Med where weather might be more delightful and the balcony is used much more. But in summer you will enjoy the mild climate. When cruising along the Norwegian coast, fitted with the right (warm) clothing, the balcony can be an valuable `extra´ because of the scenerie of the fjords.
Is the view unobstructed?
Ask if the view from the balcony is obstructed in any way. Sometimes tender or life boats are suspended from the ceiling or hanging in davits and can partially or fully obstruct the view from the balcony.
Will you even be able to sit outside?
Ask if the balcony is furnished - a table and pair of chairs so that you can actually step outside and enjoy it. Sometimes, the term `balcony´ can be misleading and it is just a `Juliette´ balcony (also called `French balcony´) which has a door but the balcony itself is only 8 to 12 inches deep, max, so no room to have furniture or sit down. Normally the door is much closer to the outside rail and there is no space to step out - only opening the door, but fresh air from the sea. E.g. on the DEUTSCHLAND and her two only "balcony" suites, the rest is announced as French Balconies.
Wait to upgrade?
Some argue don’t purchase a balcony room while booking your trip. Wait until after boarding. According to ROAMING AROUND THE WORLD, many cruise lines, especially those in US ownership, or oriented to the US market, try to entice their passengers with a `Reduced Rate Upgrade Program´ in attempts to fill balcony state rooms that haven’t been purchased.
It can be a risk, but worth a try, but only if you cruised before with the choosen cruise company, especially COSTA.
Location, location, location

Get the square footage of the cabin AND the balcony for the cabin you are considering. The largest ones are often on the cabins at the front of the ship and/or at the rear - not allway at the port- or starboard sides.
But balconies facing the bow can be a stormy matter ... consider wind, which is normally to be expected on the sea, and the cruising speed of your vessel - it is adding up. Try open the sidewindow of your car and hold out your flat hand. It a similar experience and experiment on your own.
Beaufort 6 winds can create the feeling of a storm ...
Will you be on display?
What is the point of paying extra money for a balcony if you can’t enjoy it? I would say, that you should ask how private the balcony is - on most of todays balconies you can see/hear your neighbors to each side which may be an annoyance.